Black Friday and beyond, what to expect from the shopping "hangover"

Black Friday
Michele Caprini
20 Nov 2018

Black Friday (and Cyber Monday) at the starting blocks, on both sides of the ocean. The after-effects of the Chinese Singles Day are still lingering, then this begins.

In the United States

According to a survey by Shopkick, the event will generate an incredible response The majority of consumers (74%) prepare for the event by carrying out advanced researches. 16% of the generation Z is ready to become a consumer, compared to 7% of the Generation X parents.

Whilst the search for offers goes crazy, millennials (39%) seem the ones mostly influenced by these bargains, making unexpected purchases. This confirms the trend already indicated by the Chinese online marathon on 11 November, with unplanned purchases by 56% of online consumers who were born in the 80s, and 58% of those born in the 90s.

According to a survey by Deloitte, almost three quarters of the "bridge" consumers (analysts are also looking at the "Small Business Saturday"), plans to buy during Cyber Monday, to collect almost half (47%) of all online expenses.

As for concerns the stores, the department stores (43%) are on the lead, followed by distributors of consumer electronics and office supplies (33%). According to another survey by the Bospar public relations agency, the surveyed Americans will spend more on Amazon (59%), Walmart (58%), Target (28%), Best Buy (19%), Macy's (15%) and Home Depot (8%).

In Italy

According to the eCommerce B2c Observatory of the Milan’s Politecnico University, Italian online spending will grow by about 35% compared to 2017. Which will entail an exceeding one billion euros (the first ever since Black Friday was "imported" to Italy).

The eCommerce retailer should achieve an average of three times the turnover of any day, with peaks of up to 7 times the average day trip. Almost a third of orders will be made via smartphone, an aspect that will probably not surprise anyone.

What to expect

Confirmations are also expected from Black Friday and its follow-up for the more general trends in digital commerce.

Deliveries, fist of all, which have a decisive impact on trade policies and consumer satisfaction. According to the Armstrong & Associates researchers, third-party logistics, especially for the development of online sales, will exceed $ 1.1 trillion in sales in 2022 (compared to € 800 billion in 2016).

In the Netcomm consortium’s estimations, 76.4% of what is bought through the internet is home-delivered, with the propensity to door-delivery and on a definite day, and only 9% choose a delivery location. Returns management is perhaps even more sensitive and, in any case, complementary to deliveries. For the US, the cost of return deliveries is estimated, in 2020, to $ 550 billion, 75% more over the previous four years. The returns of eCommerce, in particular, will be even greater than 95%.

The average of the most trusted search indicators places physical store returns between 8% and 10%; compared to the on-line 20%. During promotional events and holidays, returns increase by 30% and even by 50% for products with the highest price range.